UPDATE Sunday 31st December @ 0945: yesterday’s minor storm produced light rain and some hail in Idyllwild adding up to 0.35 inch. A dusting of snow across the high country has included 0.25 inch of snow as low as Humber Park (6500 ft), one inch at Saddle Junction (8100 ft) and Wellman Divide (9700 ft) with 1.5 inches at San Jacinto Peak. Carrying spikes is strongly recommended above 6000 ft. Snow depths remain insufficient for crampons or snowshoes. That advice will change next week with three storms forecast over the next 10 days.
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The forecast for the next ten days is unsettled, with three storms of steadily increasing intensities expected. A minor storm is forecast for Saturday 30th December, with light rain (0.3 inch) at mid elevations and light snow (1-3 inches) in the high country. Another minor system on 3rd-4th January is expected to be much colder, with a dusting of snow down to 5000 ft (i.e., likely including Idyllwild), and 2-6 inches in the high country. The most significant system is tentatively forecast for 6th-7th January, with as much as 1-2 feet of snow possible >10,000 ft elevation, several inches of snow at mid elevations, and a snow level near or even below 4000 ft.
A slow-moving, multiday, but ultimately minor storm system impacted the San Jacinto mountains across 18th-22nd December, with the bulk of the light snowfall on 22nd. Thin snow cover remains on the trails (>7700 ft) but is not significantly impacting hiking and most major trails already have well-traveled tracks to follow.
Precipitation totals for the storm were at the bottom end of the ranges given by many forecasts. Idyllwild (at 5550 ft) received 0.61 inch of rain across the five days, while 0.67 inch fell at Saddle Junction (8100 ft) on 18th-21st before turning to snow at that elevation on 22nd. Some of the early days of the system were warm enough that precipitation fell as freezing rain, rather than snow, as high as San Jacinto Peak on both 19th and 20th.
Most snow fell on Friday 22nd, with just very light dustings at the highest elevations on 18th and 20th. Snowfall totals included four inches at San Jacinto Peak, of which 3.5 inches were on 22nd, three inches at Wellman Divide (9700 ft) and Little Round Valley (9750 ft), and two inches at Saddle Junction. Long Valley (8600 ft) had about two inches of snow on 22nd, with light rain in the days prior.
I recorded a short video report from San Jacinto Peak at 0830 on Friday 22nd which gave a feel for conditions immediately following the main snowfall (linked here). As a relatively warm system, no significant snow fell below 7500 ft, with just a dusting down to 7200 ft.
Trails are clear of snow below 7700 ft elevation, and are clearing steadily on sun-exposed slopes up to 8900 ft. Conversely, trails are becoming increasingly icy higher up as very thin snow is compacted by hiker traffic and following freeze-thaw cycles. Spikes are recommended everywhere above about 8000 ft at this time, although hikers experienced with icy snow travel may find them of limited use. Snow depths are insufficient for snowshoes or crampons even at the highest elevations.
Daily survey hikes in the San Jacinto mountains include various routes to San Jacinto Peak multiple times per week (most recently on 20th, 21st, 22nd, 25th, and 27th December), Tahquitz Peak and area at least once per week (most recently on 19th and 24th December), plus a wide variety of other trails on intervening days.
Water sources such as creeks, pipes, and springs largely continue to flow well for the time of year, thanks to the intensity of last winter plus various storms since August, and they have not frozen in recent cold weather. Ephemeral water sources have now largely dried, but campers and hikers will still generally find water wherever they are expecting it.
South Ridge Road (5S11) was graded on 15th October and reopened in mid November. May Valley Road (5S21) was fully graded in October, and is now much more user-friendly for both hikers and bikers. Dark Canyon Road (4S02) remains closed indefinitely, although the dirt section was partly graded in early October.
Black Mountain Road (4S01) was in its poorest condition for at least a decade by June this year. The partial grading undertaken in July improved the situation, but it remains a bumpy drive. Seasonal campgrounds and fire lookouts all closed for the winter by mid November.
WEATHER
Temperatures are forecast to be above seasonal until Saturday 30th December, before largely dropping below seasonal at least into the second week of January 2024. While a relatively warm week could facilitate melting, most days for the foreseeable future will be partly or mostly cloudy, potentially slowing snowmelt somewhat.
The next minor storm is forecast for Saturday 30th December, with light rain (<0.3 inch) at mid elevations and snow (<3 inches) in the high country. Another minor system on 3rd-4th January is expected to be much colder, with a dusting of snow likely down to Idyllwild, and a few inches in the high country. Yet another system is tentatively forecast for 6th-8th January, and may be both very cold – with a freeze level down to 4000 ft – and bring heavier precipitation (10-20 inches of snow in the high country possible).
Air temperatures above 10,000 ft elevation are now typically in the 20s-mid 30s Fahrenheit (-5 to 3°C). From 30th December into mid January, windchill temperatures at high elevations will generally be far below freezing, below 0°F (-18°C) on most days. Such conditions require appropriate clothing and equipment for very cold conditions.
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Wednesday 27th December 2023 at 1015 the air temperature was 33.7°F (1°C), with a windchill temperature of 20.1°F (-7°C), 19% relative humidity, and a chilly WNW wind sustained at 10 mph gusting to 17.8 mph.
At the Peak on Monday 25th December 2023 at 0910 the air temperature was 31.6°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 17.3°F (-8°C), 43% relative humidity, and a sharp NW wind sustained at 11 mph gusting to 18.6 mph.
At the Peak on Friday 22nd December 2023 at 0825 the air temperature was 22.0°F (-6°C), with a windchill temperature of 2.7°F (-16°C), 91% relative humidity, and a bitter due South wind sustained at 13 mph gusting to 24.5 mph.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
There is continuous thin snow cover on almost all trails above about 8500 ft, patchy icy snow sections as low as 7700 ft in places, and trails are completely clear of snow below 7700 ft elevation (higher in places; details below). Major trails have well-defined tracks through the thin remnant snow at this time, with the exception of Seven Pines Trail (as of 25th December).
Even very thin snow has become icy in places on well-traveled trails due to freeze-thaw cycles and compaction by hiker traffic. Spikes are consequently recommended everywhere above about 8000 ft at this time. Snow depths are insufficient for snowshoes or crampons even at the highest elevations.
Snow on sun-exposed slopes below 10,000 ft is very thin and is expected to largely melt in the next couple of days, but the sun angle is so low in late December that melting will be slow in traditionally sheltered areas, such as the north side of Tahquitz Peak, trails 0.4 mile either side of Annie’s Junction (PCT Mile 180.8), and some upper sections of Deer Springs Trail.
Deer Springs Trail below Strawberry Junction (8100 ft) is clear of snow. Thin snow covers about 60% of the trail between Strawberry Junction and the top of Marion Mountain Trail (8700 ft). From the Marion Mountain Trail junction to San Jacinto Peak the snow cover is continuous. Spikes are useful for descending the upper trail.
Marion Mountain Trail is largely clear of snow in its lower third, but thin icy snow remains on the upper tow-thirds. Even very shallow snow traditionally persists in the least exposed central section of the trail for weeks.
Devil’s Slide Trail is now functionally clear of snow to 7700 ft (about 0.5 mile before Saddle Junction). Snow cover is largely continuous on the upper trail and is becoming very icy. Spikes are useful, especially for descending.
The Wellman and Peak trails, both largely open and sun-exposed, currently remain largely snow-covered, but are expected to steadily clear of snow. Persistent areas of snow will remain in forested sections. A well-traveled track comes up to Wellman Divide from Long and Round valleys, with largely continuous snow above Round Valley at least.
Trails on the north side of Tahquitz (photo below) and Red Tahquitz peaks, including PCT Miles 175.5-177.5, and around the Tahquitz area meadows, remain fully covered with thin snow due to their northerly exposure, drifting, and/or forest cover. South Ridge Trail south from Tahquitz Peak is largely clear of snow (surveyed 24th December) but the uppermost switchbacks near the peak have a thin continuous icy snow cover (spikes are recommended for descending those switchbacks).
Fuller Ridge Trail has about 65% snow cover (surveyed 27th December), although nowhere is the snow depth greater than about two inches in the trail. The most sun-exposed sections of the trail are completely clear of snow. There are now reliable tracks to follow through the snow sections along the entire length of the trail.
Tropical Storm Hilary in late August resulted in one or two new treefall hazards on most trails, but only Willow Creek and Fuller Ridge trails were more significantly impacted.
The rough route cleared along Willow Creek Trail in early August remarkably lasted only two weeks before Tropical Storm Hilary brought down 19 new treefall hazards. Of the seven that came down on the Forest Service section, five were removed in early November. One huge trunk remains just east of Willow Creek that most hikers will find challenging to pass. Of the 12 on the State Park section, eight were cut in late August, and there is a cleared route from Long Valley to Hidden Divide, but four remain uncut between the divide and the Forest Service boundary. The whitethorn trimming is inconsistent and scrappy but overall the trail is more passable than it was as recently as July. Eight trees – of the 60+ down after last winter – remain to be cut on the USFS section for the original trail route to be fully restored, but that will not happen this year, if ever.
Fuller Ridge Trail (PCT Miles 185.5-190.5) has 11 treefall hazards, several of which are large and challenging to pass. The Forest Service section (Miles 189-190.5) was largely cleared and thoroughly raked in September, and is in its best condition for a decade. However the huge double treefall just 0.35 mile from the campground remains. Sadly the State Park section (Miles 185.5-189) remains a mess, with considerable debris remaining from the winter and recent storms, including nine significant treefall hazards.
Deer Springs Trail has had a few treefall hazards removed by the State Park in the past month, but at least seven significant problems remain below the Fuller Ridge Trail junction dating back to last winter. Almost all of the 12 downed trees above Fuller Ridge on upper Deer Springs Trail date back some 6-10 years and have been reported to the State Park multiple times (never resulting in meaningful action).
Trails around the Skunk Cabbage and Tahquitz area meadows have some significant treefall hazards remaining from last winter (resurveyed November 2023). There are six on the PCT section north from near Mile 177 (the crossing of Tahquitz Creek) to Saddle Junction (roughly Mile 179.3), three on each side of Chinquapin Flat. There are four significant treefalls, including a couple that are not easy to pass, on the Little Tahquitz Meadow trail between the Caramba Trail and the PCT junction, and three on the Skunk Cabbage Meadow trail.
Fourteen treefall hazards from last winter on South Ridge Trail (above the trailhead at the top of South Ridge Road) were removed by the Trail Report in May, and trail trimming has been undertaken regularly. No significant new treefall hazards resulted from Tropical Storm Hilary on this trail, but one minor new one fell in November. The middle section of South Ridge Trail – between May Valley Road and the top of South Ridge Road – is now clear following removal of 20 trees in two sessions this year (15th July and 30th October).
Marion Mountain Trail has five notable treefall hazards in the State Park (upper) half. One new large stump came down in Hilary low down on the Forest Service section, but it is easy to pass.
Ten new treefall hazards on Spitler Peak Trail, largely caused by Tropical Storm Hilary, were removed by the Trail Report in October and November. This brings to 95 the number of trees removed from this trail since July 2021 by the Trail Report. Several minor washouts from last winter in the upper switchbacks have significantly impacted the tread in places; these are not problematic for hikers, but the trail is impassable to stock.
Elsewhere on the PCT treefall hazards remain a problem in many places, most notably between Apache Peak and Red Tahquitz, where I counted 106 between Miles 169-175 in summer 2023. Large downed trees make for especially slow-going around Miles 172-175 (a section severely impacted by the July 2013 Mountain Fire).
The Caramba Trail from near Reeds Meadow through Laws Camp and on to Caramba, and the Cedar Trail from Willow Creek Trail to Laws, are euphemistically described by the Forest Service as “not maintained”. In reality both trails have been abandoned and functionally no longer exist. They are so heavily overgrown with dense whitethorn, which obscures dozens of downed trees, that I strongly advise hikers do not attempt to follow them (regardless of how much you may trust a certain app). An informal use trail to Laws is much more direct, well maintained, and avoids the challenging bushwhacking of the unmaintained trails (local Idyllwild hikers dubbed it the “King Trail” when I established the route in 2019). It leaves Willow Creek Trail exactly 1.0 mile from Saddle Junction, 0.46 mile from the Skunk Cabbage turning (trailhead at N 33.7796, W-116.6590). The route descends largely following long-established deer trails for 1.2 miles, meeting Willow Creek about 0.2 mile upstream from the site of the historic Laws Camp (the remains of which were destroyed by the 2013 Mountain Fire plus subsequent flood and treefall damage). The 11 trees down on the King Trail after last winter were removed in June, and the five trees brought down by Hilary were removed or diverted around in November 2023. The tread of the trail received some damage from Tropical Storm Hilary. From Laws east to Caramba the route of the original Caramba Trail has been well-cairned by myself and others and can largely be followed with very careful route-finding. My August 2023 survey counted about 110 trees down on this 2.1 miles of trail. It is especially obscure for the first 0.3 mile east of the Willow Creek crossing, becoming more obvious (but still subtle) as it descends towards Caramba. Very cautious navigation is advised throughout the area.
Seven Pines Trail is largely clear of treefall hazards. Five new trees came down across the trail in Tropical Storm Hilary, all in the central mile, but they are readily passable for hikers. Be advised that the trail in general becomes more obscure in the mile closest to its junction with the PCT. The Trail Report has “adopted” Seven Pines Trail as a priority for maintenance work as the trail has had a disproportionate number of lost hiker rescues in the past decade. Since November 2021, more than 70 downed trees have been removed and the trail is thoroughly trimmed and cleared several times per year. Nevertheless Seven Pines remains a genuine wilderness trail unlike the relatively wide, bare, and obvious routes of, for example, Devil’s Slide or Marion Mountain trails. Cautious navigation remains essential for those without considerable experience of hiking this trail.
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