UPDATE Sunday 24th November 2024: in keeping with the theme of the winter so far, the major storm to the north almost completely missed the San Jacinto mountains. It was mild enough to produce light rain – rather than snow – as high as San Jacinto Peak, with 0.15 inch there, and similar amounts at Wellman’s Cienega (0.11 inch at 9300 ft) and Saddle Junction (0.12 inch at 8100 ft). The next week will be almost completely cloudy, with possibilities for minor precipitation on 26th, 27th, and 30th.
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Our third storm of the season brought cold temperatures, but sadly almost no precipitation, to the San Jacinto mountains on 15th-16th November. A dusting of snow (0.1 inch) fell above 9000 ft on Friday 15th. I recorded a short video report from San Jacinto Peak that morning (linked here). Further precipitation that night was much more widespread than the previous day, but still minimal, and on 16th I recorded another 0.1 inch of snow everywhere above 6400 ft. Snow cover was most consistent from 8000-9500 ft, but so thin as to be barely measurable (photos below). The mid morning air temperature at San Jacinto Peak (13.6°F/-10°C) on 16th was several degrees colder than the previous day, but without an accompanying strong wind overall it felt milder.
There is a possibility of minor snowfall spread across several days starting at the weekend (Saturday 23rd-Tuesday 26th November), as a dramatic storm passes well to our north. It remains unclear when (or even if) the storm impacts the San Jacinto mountains, with high country snow forecasts now only 0-2 inches. The relatively warm system will result in a high snow level near or even well above 9000 ft. Rainfall is expected to total less than 0.25 inch at mid elevations, potentially spread across more than two days.
Air temperatures will be near or below freezing above 10,000 ft from Saturday 23rd onward, with strong winds every day and hence windchill temperatures around the highest peaks generally well below freezing. Hikers should be prepared for winter temperatures in the high country.
Survey hikes by the Trail Report every day of the year in the San Jacinto mountains include varied and often circuitous routes to San Jacinto Peak currently 3-4 times per week, Tahquitz Peak weekly, plus a wide variety of other trails on intervening days.
Despite a failed monsoon this year and below-average winter precipitation last season (and so far this season), major springs, creeks, and pipes largely continue to flow at this time (example photos in the previous Report linked here). Ephemeral water sources have been dry for months. Middle Spring on Devil’s Slide Trail finally dried up by 10th November. The Round Valley faucet continued to flow well as of 19th November. In the Tahquitz area meadows, the ephemeral creek in Tahquitz Valley is dry, however the Tahquitz Valley pipe (for those who know where it is) continues to flow well. The creek in Skunk Cabbage Meadow continues to trickle where it is crossed by the meadow trail. Tahquitz Creek is flowing gently at the northern end of Little Tahquitz Meadow, and near its source where it crosses the PCT at Mile 177 (photos below). Strawberry Cienega is functionally dry. Hidden Lake was 10% full in mid November (by surface area, not volume). Stone Creek is no longer flowing where it crosses Deer Springs Trail at about PCT Mile 183.6, and has dried downstream of that point.
Forest Service campgrounds at Boulder Basin, Dark Canyon, Marion Mountain, and Fern Basin all closed for the season earlier in November. The State Park Stone Creek campground is also now closed for the season. The fire lookout at Black Mountain closed for the season on 14th November, and Tahquitz Peak lookout will close on Friday 22nd.
WEATHER
Temperatures have fluctuated wildly in November, and that pattern looks likely to continue for the remainder of the month. They were near or below seasonal the first few days of November before rising to above seasonal on 9th-14th. Temperatures dropped rapidly again from 15th, and are forecast to remain below seasonal until 19th.
Temperatures will be well above average on 20th-23rd, with 21st and 22nd in particular far warmer than seasonal for late November. Both of those days will be at least partly cloudy. Temperatures then drop rapidly on Saturday 23rd, associated with the passage of a cold front mainly to our north, then remaining below average until the end of November.
A major multi-day storm system passes to the north starting this weekend (Saturday 23rd-Tuesday 26th November). As a relatively warm system, there will be a consequently high snow level at or even above 9000 ft. High country snow forecasts have ranged from 0-12 inches, but are now expected to be at the lower end of that range. Rainfall may be limited to less than 0.25 inch at mid elevations, spread across 2-3 days, mostly falling overnight on Saturday 24th, and perhaps throughout 25th-26th.
A further minor storm is tentatively forecast for 29th-30th November, but details remain unclear at this time, other than the likelihood that it will again be relatively mild, with a very high freeze level.
Winds are now strong (>20 mph) daily in the high country, significantly influencing the feel of temperatures and associated risks. Air temperatures will be near or below freezing above 10,000 ft until Tuesday 19th, and again from 23rd-29th (at least), hence windchill temperatures around the highest peaks will typically be well below freezing.
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Tuesday 19th November 2024 at 1045 the air temperature was 31.3°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 16.1°F (-9°C), 26% relative humidity, and a moderate WNW wind sustained at 14 mph gusting to 24.1 mph.
At the Peak on Monday 18th November 2024 at 0820 the air temperature was 29.9°F (-1°C), with a windchill temperature of 10.8°F (-12°C), 22% relative humidity, and a steady WNW wind sustained at 18 mph gusting to 31.4 mph.
At the Peak on Saturday 16th November 2024 at 0835 the air temperature was 13.6°F (-10°C), with a windchill temperature of 0.5°F (-18°C), 100% relative humidity, and a cool NNE wind sustained at 5 mph gusting to 9.5 mph.
At the Peak on Friday 15th November 2024 at 0910 the air temperature was 17.8°F (-8°C), with a windchill temperature of -6.9°F (-22°C), 100% relative humidity, and a bitter WSW wind sustained at 16 mph gusting to 30.3 mph.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
There is currently no significant settled snow anywhere in the San Jacinto mountains (this may change starting late on Saturday 23rd November, as discussed above).
Treefall hazards remain a problem along parts of the Pacific Crest Trail, most notably between Antsell Rock and South Peak. The disinterest of Forest Service and PCTA in maintaining this section of a world-famous trail for the five years prior to this summer was simply unconscionable. The good news is that at least half of the 132 trees down between Miles 170.5-175.5 have finally been cleared by work undertaken mainly in October 2024. A concentration of large downed trees still make for slow-going around Miles 170.5-172 (east side of Antsell Rock). A further 15 smaller trees are down from Miles 168.5-170.5 (Spitler Peak Trail to Zen Center Trail).
The Trail Report has largely completed trimming the formerly overgrown Wellman Trail in the past two months. Although only a short trail, it forms a major part of a well-traveled route to/from the high country peaks. It was last trimmed in 2020, also by the Trail Report, as sadly the State Park shows little interest in maintaining most trails in their jurisdiction.
On the Fuller Ridge Trail section of the PCT there are 12 trees down on the State Park section of the trail (Miles 185.5-189), which has not been maintained by that agency for many years. Several of these pose quite significant hazards for hikers. On the Forest Service section, the two major trunks at about Mile 190.1, present for about three years, were cut by USFS on 5th November.
Trees down on the Strawberry Trail section of the PCT (Miles 180.8-183, Annie’s Junction to Strawberry Junction) have remained uncut by the Forest Service for nearly a decade. About six hazards on this section are thankfully all relatively easy for hikers to negotiate.
About 12 treefall hazards on Deer Springs Trail include 8-9 in the upper trail that have been down and reported repeatedly for nearly a decade but with no action from the State Park. All but two of the treefall hazards down between Strawberry Junction and the top of Marion Mountain Trail (roughly PCT Miles 183-185) were removed by the Trail Report in late June.
Willow Creek Trail is nearing its 2020 condition, the last time the original trail route was fully cleared and passable. Almost all significant treefall hazards on the Forest Service section were cut by mid August (several uncut trees remain that need to be removed to fully restore the original trail route). Whitethorn trimming was largely completed, mainly by volunteers, on the Forest Service side in August and early September. On the State Park side some localized whitethorn trimming of the worst patches was undertaken in September, and the minor treefall hazards new in 2023/24 were removed, leaving just two major long term downed trees (both have simple workarounds for hikers).
The 34 treefall hazards that came down across Spitler Peak Trail during ice storms earlier in 2024 were cleared by the Trail Report in June, with two further trees recently removed in October. This brings to at least 122 the total number of downed trees removed by the Report from this trail in recent years. While another round of brush trimming work is required, in general the trail is currently in its best condition for more than a year. Spitler Creek continues to flow gently at its various crossings in the upper switchbacks (photo below), but Antsell Rock Creek adjacent to the trailhead has been dry for a couple of months.
The Caramba Trail from near Reeds Meadow through Laws Camp and on to Caramba, and the Cedar Trail from Willow Creek Trail to Laws, are euphemistically described by the Forest Service as “not maintained”. In reality both trails have been abandoned and functionally no longer exist. They are so heavily overgrown with dense whitethorn, which obscures dozens of downed trees, that I strongly advise hikers do not attempt to follow them (regardless of how much you may trust an app). An informal use trail to Laws is much more direct, maintained, and avoids the challenging bushwhacking of the unmaintained trails (local Idyllwild hikers dubbed it the “King Trail” when I established the route in 2019). It leaves Willow Creek Trail exactly 1.0 mile from Saddle Junction, 0.46 mile from the Skunk Cabbage turning (trailhead at N 33.7796, W 116.6590). The route descends largely following established deer trails for 1.2 miles, meeting Willow Creek about 0.2 mile upstream from the site of the historic Laws Camp (the remains of which were destroyed by the 2013 Mountain Fire and subsequent flood and treefall damage). Eleven trees down on the King Trail were removed in June-July 2023. The tread of the trail received some damage from Tropical Storm Hilary last year. From Laws east to Caramba the route of the original Caramba Trail has been well-cairned by myself and others and can largely be followed with very careful route-finding. My 2023 survey counted about 110 trees down on this 2.1 miles of trail. It is especially obscure for the first 0.3 mile east of the Willow Creek crossing, becoming more obvious (but still subtle) as it descends towards Caramba. Very cautious navigation is advised throughout the area.
The Trail Report “adopted” Seven Pines Trail as a priority for maintenance work as the trail had a disproportionate number of lost hiker rescues in the past decade, and both State Park and Forest Service have shown no interest in maintaining the route for years. Since 2020 we have removed 75 downed trees and the trail is thoroughly trimmed and cleared multiple times annually. As of September 2024 the trail is largely clear of treefall hazards, with three down across the trail in its upper section, all easily passable for hikers. A further half-a-dozen downed trees close to the PCT junction would need to be removed to fully restore the original route of the trail. Although the condition of the trail is hugely improved, Seven Pines remains a genuine wilderness trail unlike the wider, bare, obvious routes of, for example, Devil’s Slide or Marion Mountain trails. Cautious navigation remains essential for those without considerable experience of hiking this trail. Be aware in particular that Seven Pines Trail becomes most obscure in the mile closest to its junction with Deer Springs Trail/PCT.
The Zen Center Trail continues its serious deterioration that started following the 2013 Mountain Fire, with a combination of vigorous regrowth and treefall hazards further obscuring the route with each passing season. The lower and upper thirds of this trail are partially cairned and not too bad for those who are very familiar with the former route, but even the experienced find navigating the central section tricky. Long trousers, scrambling gloves, and an enjoyment of bush-whacking are all strongly recommended.
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