After a mild October largely dominated by warm, dry weather, temperatures abruptly dropped to below seasonal on Monday 28th. The passage of a minor storm system that night produced a light dusting of snow above 9000 ft, the first widespread snow of the season, although barely measuring 0.25 inch at its deepest on San Jacinto Peak. My short video report from the Peak on the morning of Tuesday 29th is linked here. Idyllwild recorded only 0.02 inch of drizzle, but damp trails and cold temperatures made for a very welcome change. Most snow below 10,000 ft had already melted by late morning on 29th, and was gone around the highest peaks by Thursday 31st.
Another minor storm system was tentatively forecast for the weekend on 2nd-3rd November, but now appears most likely to largely pass to the north and east of our region, with very little precipitation now expected. Nevertheless, hikers heading to the high country on 2nd-3rd November should be prepared for air temperatures below freezing, and windchills well below freezing. The next forecast precipitation events are possible minor storms around 6th-7th and 12th-13th November.
Survey hikes by the Trail Report every day of the year in the San Jacinto mountains include varied and often circuitous routes to San Jacinto Peak currently 2-4 times per week, Tahquitz Peak weekly, plus a wide variety of other trails on intervening days.
Despite a failed monsoon this year and below-average winter precipitation last season, major springs, creeks, and pipes largely continue to flow at this time (example photos below). Ephemeral water sources have been dry for months. The Round Valley faucet continued to flow well as of 31st October. In the Tahquitz area meadows, the ephemeral creek in Tahquitz Valley is dry, however the Tahquitz Valley pipe (for those who know where it is) continues to flow well. The creek in Skunk Cabbage Meadow continues to trickle where it is crossed by the meadow trail. Tahquitz Creek is flowing gently at the northern end of Little Tahquitz Meadow, and near its source where it crosses the PCT at Mile 177 (photos below). Two tiny springs at Strawberry Cienega are now barely trickling and not useful for filtering. Hidden Lake was 25% full in mid October (by surface area, not volume). Stone Creek is no longer flowing where it crosses Deer Springs Trail at about PCT Mile 183.6, and has dried downstream of that point.
WEATHER
The shift from (too) many months of hot, dry, summer weather into wintery temperatures has been rapid, with a token autumn lasting no more than a week or two. Temperatures are forecast to be near or below seasonal for the remaining days of October and throughout the first third of November (at least). Some days may feel even cooler, as they will be partly or mostly cloudy.
The next minor storm system is expected on 2nd-3rd November, but may now pass largely to the north of the San Jacinto mountains. Light rain (at mid elevations) is possible at anytime from late morning Saturday into Sunday, most likely on Saturday evening, with less than 0.1 inch forecast in Idyllwild. Very light snowfall (in the high country) is possible, also most likely on Saturday evening, but is not now expected to total more than 0.5 inch at most around the highest peaks. Further minor storm systems are tentatively forecast around 7th and 12th November.
The weather patterns for the next week – including the possibility of some critical fire weather associated with Santa Ana winds between the minor storm systems – are described in more detail in the latest NWS San Diego video forecast (linked here).
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Friday 1st November 2024 at 0820 the air temperature was 36.8°F (3°C), with a windchill temperature of 25.5°F (-4°C), 13% relative humidity, and a steady due West wind sustained at 11 mph gusting to 14.8 mph.
At the Peak on Thursday 31st October 2024 at 0840 the air temperature was 32.8°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 19.9°F (-6°C), 17% relative humidity, and a fresh due West wind sustained at 9 mph gusting to 14.3 mph.
At the Peak on Tuesday 29th October 2024 at 0900 the air temperature was 22.4°F (-5°C), with a windchill temperature of 2.8°F (-16°C), 35% relative humidity, and a chilly WNW wind sustained at 8 mph gusting to 18.8 mph.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
According to the State Park Facebook page (linked here) the Skyline Trail remains closed in the section under their jurisdiction (from about 5800 ft to Grubb’s Notch). No reason has been given, and at this time of year it is clearly neither because of hot weather nor snow/ice conditions. In the absence of an explanation there has been speculation that the State Park is trying to permanently shut the trail.
Treefall hazards remain a significant problem along parts of the Pacific Crest Trail, most notably between Antsell Rock and South Peak. The disinterest of Forest Service and PCTA in maintaining this section of a world-famous trail for the five years prior to this summer was simply unconscionable. The good news is that nearly half of the 132 trees down between Miles 170.5-175.5 have finally been cleared by work in the middle two weeks of October 2024. The remainder are scheduled for removal in early November. A concentration of large downed trees make for especially slow-going around Miles 170.5-172 (east side of Antsell Rock), with the other formerly challenging area (Miles 174-175, east and south of Red Tahquitz) now largely cleared. A further 15 smaller trees are down from Miles 168.5-170.5 (Spitler Peak Trail to Zen Center Trail).
The Trail Report has largely completed trimming the formerly overgrown Wellman Trail in the past two months. Although only a short trail, it forms a major part of a well-traveled route to/from the high country peaks. It was last trimmed in 2020, also by the Trail Report, as sadly the State Park shows little interest in maintaining this trail (and too many other trails) in their jurisdiction.
On the Fuller Ridge Trail section of the PCT there are 12 trees down on the State Park section of the trail (Miles 185.5-189), which has not been maintained by that agency for many years. Several of these pose quite significant hazards for hikers. On the Forest Service section, the only treefall hazard is two massive trunks at about Mile 190.1 that has been present for about three years.
Trees down on the Strawberry Trail section of the PCT (Miles 180.8-183, Annie’s Junction to Strawberry Junction) have remained uncut by the Forest Service for nearly a decade now. About six hazards on this section are thankfully all relatively easy for hikers to negotiate.
About 12 treefall hazards on Deer Springs Trail include 8-9 in the upper trail that have been down and reported repeatedly for nearly a decade but with no action from the State Park. All but two of the treefall hazards down between Strawberry Junction and the top of Marion Mountain Trail (roughly PCT Miles 183-185) were removed by the Trail Report in late June (example photos in an earlier Report linked here).
Willow Creek Trail is significantly improved and nearing its 2020 condition (the last time the original trail route was fully cleared and passable). Almost all significant treefall hazards on the Forest Service section were cut by mid August (several uncut trees remain that need to be removed to fully restore the original trail route). Whitethorn trimming was largely completed, mainly by volunteers, on the Forest Service side in August and early September. On the State Park side some localized whitethorn trimming of the worst patches was undertaken in September, and the minor treefall hazards new in 2023/24 were removed, leaving just two major long term downed trees (both have simple workarounds for hikers).
The 34 treefall hazards that came down across Spitler Peak Trail during ice storms earlier in 2024 were cleared by the Trail Report in June, with two further trees recently removed in October. This brings to about 122 the total number of downed trees removed by the Report from this trail in recent years. While another round of brush trimming work is required, in general the trail is currently in its best condition for more than a year. Spitler Creek continues to flow gently at its various crossings in the upper switchbacks (photo below), but Antsell Rock Creek adjacent to the trailhead has been dry for a couple of months.
The Caramba Trail from near Reeds Meadow through Laws Camp and on to Caramba, and the Cedar Trail from Willow Creek Trail to Laws, are euphemistically described by the Forest Service as “not maintained”. In reality both trails have been abandoned and functionally no longer exist. They are so heavily overgrown with dense whitethorn, which obscures dozens of downed trees, that I strongly advise hikers do not attempt to follow them (regardless of how much you may trust an app). An informal use trail to Laws is much more direct, maintained, and avoids the challenging bushwhacking of the unmaintained trails (local Idyllwild hikers dubbed it the “King Trail” when I established the route in 2019). It leaves Willow Creek Trail exactly 1.0 mile from Saddle Junction, 0.46 mile from the Skunk Cabbage turning (trailhead at N 33.7796, W 116.6590). The route descends largely following established deer trails for 1.2 miles, meeting Willow Creek about 0.2 mile upstream from the site of the historic Laws Camp (the remains of which were destroyed by the 2013 Mountain Fire and subsequent flood and treefall damage). Eleven trees down on the King Trail were removed in June-July 2023. The tread of the trail received some damage from Tropical Storm Hilary last year. From Laws east to Caramba the route of the original Caramba Trail has been well-cairned by myself and others and can largely be followed with very careful route-finding. My 2023 survey counted about 110 trees down on this 2.1 miles of trail. It is especially obscure for the first 0.3 mile east of the Willow Creek crossing, becoming more obvious (but still subtle) as it descends towards Caramba. Very cautious navigation is advised throughout the area.
The Trail Report “adopted” Seven Pines Trail as a priority for maintenance work as the trail had a disproportionate number of lost hiker rescues in the past decade, and both State Park and Forest Service have shown no interest in maintaining the route for years. Since 2020 we have removed 75 downed trees and the trail is thoroughly trimmed and cleared multiple times annually. As of September 2024 the trail is largely clear of treefall hazards, with three down across the trail in its upper section, all easily passable for hikers. A further half-a-dozen downed trees close to the PCT junction would need to be removed to fully restore the original route of the trail. Although the condition of the trail is hugely improved, Seven Pines remains a genuine wilderness trail unlike the wider, bare, obvious routes of, for example, Devil’s Slide or Marion Mountain trails. Cautious navigation remains essential for those without considerable experience of hiking this trail. Be aware in particular that Seven Pines Trail becomes most obscure in the mile closest to its junction with Deer Springs Trail/PCT.
The Zen Center Trail continues its serious deterioration that started following the 2013 Mountain Fire, with a combination of vigorous regrowth and treefall hazards further obscuring the route with each passing season. The lower and upper thirds of this trail are partially cairned and not too bad for those who are very familiar with the former route, but even the experienced find navigating the central section tricky. Long trousers, scrambling gloves, and an enjoyment of bush-whacking are all strongly recommended.
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