This is a summary of conditions following the 18th storm (but 14th minor storm) of winter 2023/24 to impact our region. In keeping with the theme of this winter, most precipitation passed just to the west of the San Jacinto mountains, and a storm system that could have produced feet of snow ultimately disappointed with only three inches at San Jacinto Peak and less than an inch below 7500 ft.
At mid elevations it rained steadily throughout the morning of Tuesday 20th (0.78 inch in Idyllwild) before the storm track shifted just a few miles west again and Tuesday afternoon was largely dry. In the early hours of the storm it rained all the way to San Jacinto Peak, judging by the freezing rain plastered on all the vegetation in the high country. It cooled enough to turn to snow above 8000 ft by late morning Tuesday, but with no significant accumulation until after dark.
In the early hours of Wednesday 21st the freeze level fell to about 7000 ft and consequently it dusted (<0.25 inch) down to 6600 ft just above Humber Park, but with no significant snow accumulation below about 7500 ft.
On Wednesday 21st I ascended San Jacinto Peak via Devil’s Slide, PCT, Wellman and Peak trails. Despite carrying spikes and snowshoes, I was able to bareboot all the way to San Jacinto Peak, despite generally poor quality, soft, warm snow, especially below 9000 ft. The minimal depth of new snow meant that snowshoe and posthole tracks from the past couple of weeks remained largely visible. Much of the ascent was in patchy sunshine, but the clouds rolled in again as I neared the Peak late morning, and then it lightly snowed on me for the rest of the day until I was on lower Devil’s Slide Trail (although with almost no measurable new accumulation since I had ascended many hours earlier).
I recorded a short(ish) video report at San Jacinto Peak at noon on Wednesday 21st February (available here) that discusses conditions at that time.
The storm sequence on 4th-9th February (described in detail in a prior Report here) has been the only major one of this winter to date, and along with three moderate storm between 20th January and 2nd February, accounts for almost all of the snow depth currently on the mountains at this time.
Snow conditions are generally currently poor at all elevations, and will likely deteriorate further with warm temperatures over the next few days. Especially below 9000 ft which has been largely above freezing for several days and heavily rained on, snow is soft, slushy in places, and unreliable underfoot, even in the morning. Higher up, snow quality is a little better, but in particular on the sun-exposed slopes there are unpredictable patches where deep postholing is always a possibility.
Snowshoes are now valuable everywhere above about 8000 ft elevation, especially on the various warm days expected soon, and in late morning and afternoons as snow softens on sun-exposed slopes (see also photos below for sample conditions). They are especially invaluable for any off-trail travel everywhere above 7000 ft.
Carrying spikes remains recommended everywhere above about 6000 ft, even if using other traction devices as well. Crampons are required on the north side of Tahquitz Peak, as discussed below, and will become increasingly useful everywhere in the high country above roughly 9500 ft (possibly lower) over the next few days and weeks as the expected deep snow firms up following freeze-thaw cycles and compaction.
The next two storm systems are already on the way, forecast for 26th-27th February and 2nd-3rd March. The first of these is expected to be another mild, minor system, with rain at mid elevations less than 0.5 inch, and snow at the highest elevations only a few inches at most. Freeze levels may be near or even above 7500 ft. The storm in early March is expected to be much colder, with light snow possibly as low as 4000 ft, and as much as 1-2 feet of snow above 9000 ft.
At present snow depths are too shallow for any avalanche risk anywhere in the vicinity of the established trail system, and snow in the Snow Creek drainage/north face of San Jacinto Peak is both shallow and has consolidated sufficiently to have no significant avy risk.
Be bear aware. Although rarely reported, up to three Black Bears have been in the San Jacinto mountains since 2017. I crossed bear tracks at 9100 ft on the PCT on 12th February 2024 (photo in the previous Report linked here). While Southern California studies have found that hibernation is integral to gestation for pregnant female bears, adult males and younger bears of both sexes generally don’t hibernate this far south. I have seen at least one bear annually for six years, most recently in September 2023 on Marion Mountain Trail, and on Devil’s Slide Trail in July 2022 and September 2021 (a poor quality video from the latter observation is available here). I saw a different “blond” individual on Devil’s Slide Trail in August 2020 and had previously filmed that same bear walking past our house in Idyllwild in 2018 (video here).
Humber Park closed on 31st January, has not yet been plowed, and remained closed as of Wednesday 21st. Even when closed, there are nine legal parking spaces just below the gate (Adventure Pass or equivalent still required). South Ridge Road is closed due to winter conditions. Azalea Drive – access to Marion Mountain trailhead – has been periodically plowed by USFS.
Despite shallow snow this season (<18 inches) and being readily passable with the appropriate skills and equipment for angled icy snow, the State Park closed the uppermost section of Skyline Trail in their jurisdiction (above about 5600 ft) starting 21st February due to perceived unsafe conditions.
WEATHER
Temperatures may be on something of a rollercoaster ride for the next week or two. Immediately after passage of this latest storm, temperatures rapidly rise to well above seasonal on 23rd-25th, forecast to reach 60°F in Idyllwild and above freezing even at the highest peaks. The next minor storm is expected on 26th-27th February, with the bulk of the (light) precipitation expected overnight on Monday 26th into the Tuesday morning, and temperatures dropping accordingly. Very light snowfall is forecast to be limited to the upper elevations, with only 0.25-0.5 inch rain at mid elevations.
Temperatures rise steadily shortly after passage of that storm, again to above seasonal, around the turn of the month, with possibly several days at or above freezing over 10,000 ft elevation. Forecasts are tentatively suggesting another storm system around 2nd-3rd March. While details remain unclear this far in advance, it may be cold enough to snow throughout the mid elevations, with possibly 1-4 inches in Idyllwild and 1-2 feet in the high country. After passage of that storm, temperatures may again warm steadily.
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Wednesday 21st February 2024 at 1205 the air temperature was 23.3°F (-5°C), with a windchill temperature of 3.2°F (-16°C), 100% relative humidity, and a bitter WSW wind sustained at 14 mph occasionally gusting to 24.4 mph.
At the Peak on Wednesday 14th February 2024 at 0910 the air temperature was 25.9°F (-3°C), with a windchill temperature of 12.0°F (-11°C), 62% relative humidity, and a steady due West wind sustained at 9 mph occasionally gusting to 13.6 mph.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
There is increasingly patchy light snow cover on all trails between 6000-6800 ft, becoming continuous above about 6800 ft and significantly deeper above about 7500 ft. Snow depths measured at specific locations are given below.
Snow depths in this latest storm were insufficient to impact the tracks in place with the exception of a few short sections above 9800 ft. The mild rainfall below 8000 ft accelerated melting of snow in mid elevation areas.
Snowshoes remain valuable everywhere above about 8000 ft elevation, especially on warm days and later in the day on sunny slopes. They are strongly recommended for any off-trail travel away from the defined tracks.
Carrying spikes is recommended everywhere above about 5500 ft. Crampons are required on the north side of Tahquitz Peak, as discussed below, and will become increasingly useful everywhere in the high country over the next few days and weeks as the expected deep snow undergoes freeze-thaw cycles and compaction.
Tracks known to be broken through the snow at this time are the Ernie Maxwell Trail, South Ridge Trail to Tahquitz Peak on the south side of the peak, Devil’s Slide Trail, onward via the PCT, Wellman and Peak trails to San Jacinto Peak, from Long and Round valleys up to Wellman Divide and more directly up from Tamarack Valley joining the Peak Trail at about 10,000 ft and also at 10,350 ft just below the Miller Peak area. There is also evidence of a track approximately following the Deer Springs Trail route up from Little Round Valley to San Jacinto Peak.
Devil’s Slide Trail has about 60% snow cover up to 6800 ft. Thereafter snow cover is continuous, has been well-traveled and is suitable for barebooting, for snowshoes (especially later in the day as snow softens) despite some significant postholes, or for spikes all day. The Trail Report undertook extensive trail maintenance work on 15th February to remove the many damaged tree limbs in and over the trail resulting from the early February ice storm.
Ernie Maxwell Trail has a well-traveled and compacted track through largely continuous light snow along its entire length. Spikes are useful on colder mornings when snow is icy.
There are very lightly traveled snowshoe tracks around the Tahquitz area meadows, but not generally accurately following the established trail routes. These have become somewhat obscured in the recent fresh snow.
The track following the PCT north of Saddle Junction to Annie’s Junction, and then beyond on the Wellman Trail, accurately follows those trails. Unfortunately the tracks(s) north from Wellman Divide only roughly follow the established trail routes at best. But they will get you to San Jacinto Peak with patience. The formerly well-defined snowshoe track above 10,350 ft has been erased by recent snow, but a fresh posthole track (21st February) now follows the East Ridge directly up to the Peak.
The 0.4 mile section of South Ridge Trail between Chinquapin Flat/PCT and Tahquitz Peak has no track to follow at this time through 2-5 feet of heavily drifted and angled ice and icy snow. Neither snowshoes nor spikes are especially helpful at this time, due to the angled slope and structure of the snow, respectively. Crampons (always with an ice axe) are recommended on this section at this time, along with the necessary skills and experience to use that equipment in icy, angled terrain.
Current snow cover on the PCT is minimal from Miles 151 (Highway 74) to about 156. Snow is then thin and patchy, largely confined to north-facing slopes, until about Mile 165. Snow cover is then continuous and moderately deep between Miles 165-194. Based on my recent survey hikes there are currently no tracks through snow on the PCT north of Fobes Saddle (Mile 166) until about Mile 177. There are currently no tracks on Fuller Ridge (Miles 185.5-191). At this time, nobo hikers should consider taking alternates at either Fobes Trail (Mile 166) or Spitler Peak Trail (Mile 168.5) to avoid the worst of the icy snow slopes from Miles 169-175. This situation will continue to change over the coming days with a sequence of rapid melting periods and minor storms alternating into early March at least.
SNOW DEPTHS measured on 21st February 2024 are as follows. The first number gives current average total depth. Reductions in totals since the last Report are due to significant melting in the intervening 10-14 days since prior storms. The numbers in parentheses give the new snow from the storm on 20th-21st February (plus rainfall, where known). Note that average depth is given; due to strong winds accompanying most storms this winter there has been considerable drifting. Altitudes and PCT mileages are approximate.
San Jacinto Peak (10810 ft): 48-50 inches (3.0 inches new on 20th-21st February)
Wellman Divide (9700 ft): 31 inches (2.0 inches new on 20th-21st February)
Annie’s Junction/approx. PCT Mile 181.8 (9070 ft): 38-40 inches (2.0 inches new on 20th-21st February)
Long Valley (8600 ft): 12-14 inches (1.5 inches new on 20th-21st February, preceded by 0.30 inch rain on 20th)
Saddle Junction/approx. PCT Mile 179.9 (8070 ft): 14 inches (1.5 inches new on 20th-21st February)
Devil’s Slide Trail at Humber Park (6550 ft): 2-5 inches (<0.25 inch new on 21st February)
Idyllwild (at 5550 ft): 0-1 inch (no new snow, storm total 1.18 inches of rain 20th-21st February)
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