UPDATED Sunday 21st January 2024 @ 0905: Light rain started yesterday at 1100 in Idyllwild, and at about 1140 in Long Valley (8600 ft), quickly turning to very light, intermittent snow at the latter elevation. Current accumulation is 0.92 inch rain in Idyllwild, 2-3 inches of snow in Long Valley, 4 inches at Wellman Divide, and 4-5 inches of snow at San Jacinto Peak. Snow level last night was at 7500 ft on South Ridge and Devil’s Slide Trail, but this morning it has accumulated to 0.5 inch at 6300 ft in Pine Cove and there are occasional flakes in Idyllwild (at 5550 ft). The second, more significant, storm system comes through in the early hours of Monday 22nd with the precipitation expected to last nearly 24 hours.
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Warm afternoons in recent days have generated strong freeze-thaw cycles which have led to very icy conditions in the thin snow cover. This is especially impacting elevations between 5500-8000 ft at this time, where traction devices such as spikes are strongly recommended for all hikers on trails and even on parts of some dirt roads.
It has taken until late January to get here, but finally the first significant snow-producing storm system of this winter is forecast this weekend (actually back-to-back storms) with 1-2 inches of rain forecast at mid elevations for 20th-22nd January. Light-to-moderate snow in the high country in the storms on 20th and 22nd could total 12 inches or more. The storms are predicted to be relatively warm, with a freeze level near 7000 ft.
In the early hours of 11th January we had our 12th minor storm of this winter, with a consistent 0.5 inch of fresh snow between 5500-10,000 ft, dusting down to 4700 ft, but with only limited evidence of 0.25 inch at San Jacinto Peak.
Remarkably these 12 storms have combined to only produce 16.5 inches total snow fall at San Jacinto Peak this winter (with only half that currently on the ground due to melting between storms). This is certainly an all-time record low for the time of year.
Strong winds associated with the storm on 11th initially erased all existing tracks and caused major drifting redistributing the snow. Some areas in the high country are now at least two feet deep, while others are just 1-2 inches deep and will melt rapidly. A strong warming trend over this week will lead to rapid melting at all elevations, especially on sun-exposed slopes.
On the morning of Thursday 11th I broke trail again from Humber Park via Devil’s Slide, Wellman, and Peak trails to San Jacinto Peak. I chose to posthole, although snow is heavily drifted in places. Around noon I recorded a short video at San Jacinto Peak (linked here) giving a feel for weather and snow conditions today. The only hiker I saw all day on 11th January was “Secretariat”, the first northbound PCT hiker of the season.
Humber Park has reopened and is largely plowed, South Ridge and Black Mountain roads remain open but are very icy in places.
WEATHER
Temperatures will rise rapidly to well-above seasonal at all elevations after Friday 12th. There is now a reliable forecast of moderate rainfall (1-2 inches) at mid elevations on 20th-22nd January. Snowfall in the high country is generally forecast to be light-to-moderate, with 3-5 inches falling in the first, colder, storm on Saturday night 20th January, but lighter snow, 2-3 inches at the highest elevations, falling throughout the day during the second storm on Monday 22nd. Temperatures are then forecast to rise again to well above seasonal starting Thursday 25th.
Air temperatures above 10,000 ft elevation will be in the 30s Fahrenheit (0° to 4°C) starting Friday 12th January, far above seasonal for these elevations in January. Cooler air temperatures below freezing are expected during the passage of storms on 20th-25th, with windchill temperatures approaching 0°F (-18°C).
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Monday 15th January 2024 at 0905 the air temperature was 34.1°F (1°C), with a windchill temperature of 16.3°F (-9°C), 28% relative humidity, and a very gusty WNW wind sustained at 18 mph gusting to 32.9 mph.
At the Peak on Thursday 11th January 2024 at 1200 the air temperature was 19.0°F (-7°C), with a windchill temperature of -5.4°F (-21°C), 28% relative humidity, and a bitter NNE wind sustained at 17 mph gusting to 26.9 mph.
At the Peak on Sunday 7th January 2024 at 1240 the air temperature was 8.4°F (-13°C), with a windchill temperature of -14.4°F (-26°C), 67% relative humidity, and a fresh WNW wind sustained at 7 mph gusting to 16.1 mph.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
There is light snow cover on all trails above about 5500 ft, becoming locally moderate (>5 inches) above 8000 ft, but heavily drifted in some higher elevation areas and consequently ranging from 0-25 inches deep. Snow depths measured at specific locations are given below.
Most major trails have broken tracks through the snow at this time, including the entire PCT through the San Jacinto mountains. However, as of the morning of Monday 15th, there was no track up from Little Round Valley to Summit Junction (just below San Jacinto Peak).
Carrying spikes is recommended everywhere above about 6000 ft at this time. This elevation will rise steadily over the next week or two due to melting especially in sun-exposed areas. Spikes will become increasingly valuable over the next few days and weeks as snow becomes icy from freeze-thaw cycles and compacted due to hiker traffic. Spikes tend to be especially valuable for descending, even when not seemingly needed for ascending.
Snow depths are temporarily adequate for snowshoes above about 8000 ft in some locations where snow has drifted deeper than average (before melting this week will lead to thinning snow cover in many areas). However most well-traveled trails are now too compact for comfortable snowshoe use.
Devil’s Slide Trail has now been well traveled. Icy snow cover [updated 19th January] is only 40% and patchy below 7500 ft elevation, and is largely continuous above that to Saddle Junction.
Deer Springs Trail has a moderately traveled track to Little Round Valley, with a single posthole track continuing up to Summit Junction (0.3 mile from San Jacinto Peak).
South Ridge Trail on both north and south sides of Tahquitz Peak has a well-defined track through the light snow. South from Tahquitz Peak snow cover averages 70% decreasing to 30% below Old Lookout Flat (7600 ft). Spikes are useful, especially for descending the upper trail. South Ridge Road is largely clear of ice but the few remaining sections are treacherous and 4WD/AWD is required.
The 0.4 mile section of South Ridge Trail between Chinquapin Flat/PCT and Tahquitz Peak has a clear posthole track to follow at this time through 12-30 inches of heavily drifted icy snow. Many hikers will find spikes are helpful but they are not required for those experienced with icy snow travel. Hiking poles are useful.
The Ernie Maxwell Trail (surveyed 13th January) has a continuous, well-traveled track through very thin snow. It is icy in places and some hikers may find spikes are useful.
SNOW DEPTHS measured on 11th January 2024 are as follows. Note that average depth is given; due to strong winds accompanying the storm on 11th, and the mobile nature of the light, dry snow of recent storms, there has been exceptional drifting. Altitudes and PCT mileages are approximate. Some measurements are equal to or shallower than those on 7th January, due to melting on 8th-10th.
San Jacinto Peak (10810 ft): 8 inches (0.25 inch new snowfall on 11th January) but exceptionally drifted, ranging from 0-25 inches.
Wellman Divide (9700 ft): 7 inches (0.5 inches new snow on 11th, see photo below)
Annie’s Junction/approx. PCT Mile 181.8 (9070 ft): 8 inches (0.5 inch new snow on 11th), heavily drifted
Tahquitz Peak (8836 ft): 6-7 inches around the Peak itself [measured 9th January]
Saddle Junction/approx. PCT Mile 179.9 (8070 ft): 6 inches (0.5 inch new snow on 11th)
Old Lookout Flat (7600 ft on South Ridge Trail): 4 inches [measured on 9th January]
Devil’s Slide Trail at Humber Park (6550 ft): 3 inches (0.5 inch new snow on 11th)
Idyllwild (at 5550 ft): 1.0 inch, already largely melted by 12th (0.5 inches new snow on 11th)
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