Weather and trail update 30th November 2023

UPDATE 1st December 2023: yet another minor snow storm overnight, but this was the most significant of the winter to date. There is a consistent two inches of snow throughout the high country above 7000 ft (up to about 2.5 inches in Little Round Valley). Although it is not icy yet, carrying spikes is recommended for the next couple of days at least. Following several heavy hail storms overnight in Idyllwild, the snow dusted down to 5500 ft, but there is 1-1.5 inches at 6000-6500 ft in Pine Cove. With rapid warming in the next few days, melting is expected to be steady at all elevations. In the rain shadow on the eastern side of the mountains, Long Valley (8700 ft) received only a dusting of snow, already melted by this afternoon.

UPDATE 30th November 2023 at 1215: another very minor storm overnight produced 0.29 inch of rain in Idyllwild and a dusting of snow above 6200 ft. Snow depth is a sparse 0.25 inch, including around the highest peaks, but was a slightly deeper 0.5 inch between 8000-9500 ft, an elevation band that was presumably in the cloud for longer. Windchill temperature at San Jacinto Peak is -2°F (-19°C) so gear for cold weather is essential. By the time I descended late morning, most snow on Devil’s Slide Trail had already melted, as had significant sections as high as Wellman Divide (9700 ft).

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The most recent of several minor rain events in the past ten days occurred on the evening of 24th November, when a light rain at mid elevations (0.15 inch in Idyllwild) included a dusting of snow everywhere above about 7000 ft. The snow cover was thin but remarkably uniform, with 0.25 inch throughout the high country, but locally 0.5-1.0 inch, notably near and around Tahquitz Peak, which was enveloped in cloud for much longer than many other areas.

The light snows from that event and earlier dustings on 15th and 18th November (described in detail in the prior Report linked here) have now largely melted. Another minor storm system is tentatively forecast to impact the region across three days on 29th November-1st December. Details are given in Weather below, but light snow may occur across the high country and possibly including a very light dusting as low as Idyllwild.

Our survey hikes every day in the San Jacinto mountains include various routes to San Jacinto Peak multiple times per week, most recently on 20th, 23rd, and 27th November, Tahquitz Peak and area at least once per week, plus a wide range of other trails on intervening days. My recent weather observations from San Jacinto Peak are given in the Weather section below.

Water sources such as creeks, pipes, and springs largely continue to flow well for the time of year, given the intensity of last winter plus various storms since August. Many ephemeral water sources have finally dried, but campers and hikers will still generally find water wherever they are expecting it (see example photographs below and in the prior Report linked here).

Be bear aware. Although rarely reported, at least three Black Bears have been in the San Jacinto mountains since 2017, and I have had 1-2 sightings annually for the past six years. As I descended upper Marion Mountain Trail at about 8250 ft elevation mid morning on 14th September 2023 I had an excellent observation, initially in the open at 40-50 metres, of what may have been the same very large (>250lb) dark brown individual with a white chest blaze that I had previously seen on Devil’s Slide Trail in July 2022 and September 2021 (a poor quality video from the latter observation is available here).

South Ridge Road (5S11) was graded on 15th October and reopened in mid November. May Valley Road (5S21) was fully graded in October, and is now much more user-friendly for both hikers and bikers. Dark Canyon Road (4S02) remains closed indefinitely, although the dirt section was partly graded in early October.

Black Mountain Road (4S01) was in its poorest condition for at least a decade by June this year. The partial grading undertaken on 17th July improved the situation somewhat, but it remains a bumpy drive. Seasonal campgrounds and fire lookouts are now all closed for the winter.

WEATHER

Recent days have been pleasantly cloudy with below seasonal temperatures, and this pattern is expected to continue for another week.

A minor storm system is tentatively forecast to impact the region across three days on 29th November-1st December. The freeze level is expected to be lower than other minor storms earlier this month, and if it snows a dusting is possible down to 6000 ft or even lower (i.e., potentially including Idyllwild). Otherwise mid elevations are expected to receive light rain, mainly from the afternoon of Thursday 30th and throughout the morning of Friday 1st. Forecasting snowfall for the high country has proven to be problematic, but currently 0-3 inches of snow are possible, spread thinly across the same time period.

Next week temperatures are expected to abruptly rise to well above seasonal on 4th-9th December at least. Both daytime high and overnight low temperatures are currently forecast to be as much as 10°F above seasonal at mid and upper elevations, melting any light snow that may have fallen in the preceding days.

Air temperatures above 10,000 ft elevation are now generally in the upper 20s-low 30s Fahrenheit (-5 to 1°C), with windchill temperatures well below freezing, at times far below freezing depending on wind speed (note temperatures will be warmer on 4th-9th December as described above).

At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Monday 27th November 2023 at 0825 the air temperature was 32.5°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 19.4°F (-7°C), 7% relative humidity, and a cool SE wind sustained at 8 mph gusting to 13.9 mph.

At the Peak on Thursday 23rd November 2023 at 0810 the air temperature was 32.7°F (0°C), with a windchill temperature of 17.2°F (-8°C), 26% relative humidity, and a blustery due West wind sustained at 18 mph gusting to 31.7 mph.

At the Peak on Monday 20th November 2023 at 0810 the air temperature was 34.6°F (1°C), with a windchill temperature of 13.6°F (-10°C), 7% relative humidity, and a wild due North wind sustained at 20 mph gusting to 45.9 mph.

TRAIL CONDITIONS

With multiple light rains over the past ten days, trails are pleasantly dust-free, with generally little or no ice (but caution is recommended around springs and water crossings).

There is no significant settled snow anywhere in the high country. However a very thin dusting persists in places, notably on the north side of Tahquitz and Red Tahquitz peaks. Traction devices are not currently required anywhere, but may be useful in the first few days of December above about 9000 ft depending on snowfall from the expected minor storm (see discussion in Weather above).

Tropical Storm Hilary in late August resulted in many minor washouts across the trail system, considerable treefall debris in the trails. Most trails have one or two new treefall hazards, and only Willow Creek and Fuller Ridge trails were more significantly impacted.

The rough route cleared along Willow Creek Trail in early August remarkably lasted only two weeks before Tropical Storm Hilary brought down 19 new treefall hazards. Of the seven that came down on the Forest Service section, five were removed in early November. One huge trunk remains just east of Willow Creek that most hikers will find challenging to pass. Of the 12 on the State Park section, eight were cut in late August, and there is a cleared route from Long Valley to Hidden Divide, but four remain uncut between the divide and the Forest Service boundary. The whitethorn trimming is inconsistent and scrappy but overall the trail is more passable than it was as recently as July. Eight trees – of the 60+ down after last winter – remain to be cut on the USFS section for the original trail route to be fully restored, but that will not happen this year, if ever.

Fuller Ridge Trail (PCT Miles 185.5-190.5) has 11 treefall hazards, several of which are large and challenging to pass. The Forest Service section (Miles 189-190.5) was largely cleared and thoroughly raked in September, and is in its best condition for a decade. However the huge double treefall just 0.35 mile from the campground remains. Sadly the State Park section (Miles 185.5-189) remains a mess, with considerable debris remaining from the winter and recent storms, including nine significant treefall hazards.

Deer Springs Trail has had a few treefall hazards removed by the State Park in the past month, but at least seven significant problems remain below the Fuller Ridge Trail junction dating back to last winter. Almost all of the 12 downed trees above Fuller Ridge on upper Deer Springs Trail date back some 6-10 years and have been reported to the State Park multiple times (never resulting in meaningful action).

Trails around the Skunk Cabbage and Tahquitz area meadows have some significant treefall hazards remaining from last winter (resurveyed November 2023). There are six on the PCT section north from near Mile 177 (the crossing of Tahquitz Creek) to Saddle Junction (roughly Mile 179.3), three on each side of Chinquapin Flat. There are four significant treefalls, including a couple that are not easy to pass, on the Little Tahquitz Meadow trail between the Caramba Trail and the PCT junction, and three on the Skunk Cabbage Meadow trail.

Fourteen treefall hazards from this past winter on South Ridge Trail (above the trailhead at the top of South Ridge Road) were removed by the Trail Report in May, and trail trimming has been undertaken regularly. No significant new treefall hazards resulted from Tropical Storm Hilary on this trail, but one minor new one fell in November. The middle section of South Ridge Trail – between May Valley Road and the top of South Ridge Road – is now clear following removal of 20 trees in two sessions this season (15th July and 30th October).

Marion Mountain Trail has five notable treefall hazards in the State Park (upper) half. One new large stump came down in Hilary low down on the Forest Service section, but it is easy to pass.

Ten new treefall hazards on Spitler Peak Trail, largely caused by Tropical Storm Hilary, were removed by the Trail Report in October and November. This brings to 95 the number of trees removed from this trail since July 2021 by the Trail Report. Several minor washouts from last winter in the upper switchbacks have significantly impacted the tread in places; these are not problematic for hikers, but the trail is impassable to stock.

Elsewhere on the PCT treefall hazards remain a problem in many places, most notably between Apache Peak and Red Tahquitz, where I counted 106 between Miles 169-175 in summer 2023. Large downed trees make for especially slow-going around Miles 172-175 (a section severely impacted by the July 2013 Mountain Fire).

The Caramba Trail from near Reeds Meadow through Laws Camp and on to Caramba, and the Cedar Trail from Willow Creek Trail to Laws, are euphemistically described by the Forest Service as “not maintained”. In reality both trails have been abandoned and functionally no longer exist. They are so heavily overgrown with dense whitethorn, which obscures dozens of downed trees, that I strongly advise hikers do not attempt to follow them (regardless of how much you may trust a certain app). An informal use trail to Laws is much more direct, well maintained, and avoids the challenging bushwhacking of the unmaintained trails (local Idyllwild hikers dubbed it the “King Trail” when I established the route in 2019). It leaves Willow Creek Trail exactly 1.0 mile from Saddle Junction, 0.46 mile from the Skunk Cabbage turning (trailhead at N 33.7796, W-116.6590). The route descends largely following long-established deer trails for 1.2 miles, meeting Willow Creek about 0.2 mile upstream from the site of the historic Laws Camp (the remains of which were destroyed by the 2013 Mountain Fire plus subsequent flood and treefall damage). The 11 trees down on the King Trail after last winter were removed in June, and the five trees brought down by Hilary were removed or diverted around in November 2023. The tread of the trail received some damage from Tropical Storm Hilary. From Laws east to Caramba the route of the original Caramba Trail has been well-cairned by myself and others and can largely be followed with very careful route-finding. My August 2023 survey counted about 110 trees down on this 2.1 miles of trail. It is especially obscure for the first 0.3 mile east of the Willow Creek crossing, becoming more obvious (but still subtle) as it descends towards Caramba. Very cautious navigation is advised throughout the area.

Seven Pines Trail is largely clear of treefall hazards. Five new trees came down across the trail in Tropical Storm Hilary, all in the central mile, but they are readily passable for hikers. Be advised that the trail in general becomes more obscure in the mile closest to its junction with the PCT. The Trail Report has “adopted” Seven Pines Trail as a priority for maintenance work as the trail has had a disproportionate number of lost hiker rescues in the past decade. Since November 2021, more than 70 downed trees have been removed and the trail is thoroughly trimmed and cleared several times per year. Nevertheless Seven Pines remains a genuine wilderness trail unlike the relatively wide, bare, and obvious routes of, for example, Devil’s Slide or Marion Mountain trails. Cautious navigation remains essential for those without considerable experience of hiking this trail.

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