UPDATE 13th November 2023: the storm system predicted for later this week (discussed below) has proven very challenging to forecast accurately. While the coast may be much wetter, precipitation totals this far inland are now expected to be low. Most of the light rain will be in the evening and overnight on Wednesday 15th, but is now expected to be <0.5 inch at mid elevations. Only 1-2 inches of snow are likely around the highest peaks, with a freeze level at or even above 10,000 ft.
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The seasons are changing swiftly, and we may move quickly through autumnal conditions to wintry weather. Santa Ana winds forecast for 8th-12th November are expected to be strongest on 8th-9th, accompanied by low humidity, cold temperatures, and an elevated fire risk.
The first significant precipitation-producing storm system of winter 2023/24 is tentatively forecast for 15th-18th November. Rainfall is expected at mid elevations, with 0.2-1.5 inches of light rain forecast in Idyllwild (5000-6000 ft) spread across 3-4 days. Snow in the high country is possible but with a high freeze level around 9000 ft, and forecast snow accumulations remain very unclear and range widely from 0-12 inches above 10,000 ft.
Our daily hikes in the San Jacinto mountains include various routes to/from San Jacinto Peak multiple times per week, most recently on 3rd, 7th, and 10th November, Tahquitz Peak and area at least weekly, plus many other trails on intervening days. Recent weather observations from San Jacinto Peak are given in the Weather section below.
Water sources such as creeks, pipes, and springs largely continue to flow very well for the time of year, given the intensity of last winter, plus Tropical Storm Hilary in August (see multiple example photos in previous Report linked here plus photo below). Consequently there has been no need to report water details for specific locations this year.
Be bear aware. Although rarely reported, at least three Black Bears have been in the San Jacinto mountains since 2017, and I have had 1-2 sightings annually for the past six years. As I descended upper Marion Mountain Trail at about 8250 ft elevation mid morning on 14th September 2023 I had an excellent observation, initially in the open at 40-50 metres, of what may have been the same very large (>250lb) dark brown individual with a white chest blaze that I had previously seen on Devil’s Slide Trail in July 2022 and September 2021 (a poor quality video from the latter observation is available here).
May Valley Road (5S21) was fully graded in October, and is now much more user-friendly for both hikers and bikers. South Ridge Road (5S11) was fully graded on 15th October but remains closed to vehicles. Dark Canyon Road (4S02) remains closed indefinitely, although the dirt section was partly graded in early October.
Black Mountain Road (4S01) was in its poorest condition for at least a decade this spring. The partial grading undertaken on 17th July improved the situation somewhat, but it remains a bumpy drive that deteriorated further following Tropical Storm Hilary. Boulder Basin Campground closed early for the season on 23rd October. Marion Mountain and Fern Basin campgrounds closed in early November. Black Mountain Fire Lookout closes for the season on Sunday 12th November, and Tahquitz Peak Fire Lookout earlier than normal, in light of the weather forecast, on Monday 13th.
WEATHER
Temperatures were above seasonal for the entire first week of November. Temperatures are now dropping to roughly seasonal, initially associated with moderate Santa Ana winds on 8th-12th.
The first potentially significant storm system of winter 2023/24 is forecast for 15th-18th November. Rainfall is expected at mid elevations, with lees than an inch of rain forecast in Idyllwild, and light snow in the high country is possible, with a freeze level dropping (but remaining relatively high) at 8000-9000 ft on Friday 17th. Potential snow accumulations remain very uncertain in the forecast models – depending on if or when the system directly impacts our area – but could range from 0-12 inches above 10,000 ft.
Air temperatures above 10,000 ft elevation are now in the 30s Fahrenheit (-1 to 5°C), with windchill temperatures below freezing. Both air and windchill temperatures are expected to be lower associated with the anticipated passage of the storm system on 15th-18th November.
At San Jacinto Peak (3295m/10,810ft) on Friday 10th November 2023 at 0805 the air temperature was 30.8°F (-1°C), with a windchill temperature of 17.4°F (-8°C), 10% relative humidity, and a fresh NW wind sustained at 8 mph gusting to 15.6 mph.
At the Peak on Tuesday 7th November 2023 at 0820 the air temperature was 35.6°F (2°C), with a windchill temperature of 22.6°F (-5°C), 13% relative humidity, and a blustery WSW wind sustained at 12 mph gusting to 22.9 mph.
At the Peak on Friday 3rd November 2023 at 0845 the air temperature was 44.4°F (7°C), with a windchill temperature of 35.0°F (2°C), 12% relative humidity, and a benign ENE wind sustained at 8 mph gusting to 14.8 mph.
At the Peak on Monday 30th October 2023 at 0815 the air temperature was 34.4°F (1°C), with a windchill temperature of 18.3°F (-8°C), 3% relative humidity, and a potent NE wind sustained at 21 mph gusting to 28.5 mph. The astoundingly low 3.0% relative humidity is well below the previous record for San Jacinto Peak of 5%, recorded twice in July this year.
TRAIL CONDITIONS
Tropical Storm Hilary in late August resulted in many minor washouts across the trail system, considerable treefall debris – branches, cones, sticks – in the trails, and water flowing across and in the trails. Damage could have been much worse, and few problems are challenging for hikers. Most trails have one or two new treefall hazards, and only Willow Creek and Fuller Ridge trails were more significantly impacted.
The rough route cleared along Willow Creek Trail in early August remarkably lasted only two weeks before Tropical Storm Hilary brought down 19 new treefall hazards. Of the seven that came down on the Forest Service section, five were removed in early November. One huge trunk remains just east of Willow Creek that some hikers will find challenging to pass. Of the 12 on the State Park section, eight were cut in late August, and there is a cleared route from Long Valley to Hidden Divide, but four remain uncut between the divide and the Forest Service boundary. The whitethorn trimming is inconsistent and scrappy but overall the trail is more passable than as recently as July. Eight trees – of the 60+ down after last winter – remain to be cut on the USFS section for the original trail route to be fully restored, but that will not happen this year, if ever.
Fuller Ridge Trail (PCT Miles 185.5-190.5) has 11 treefall hazards, several of which are large and challenging to pass. The Forest Service section (Miles 189-190.5) was largely cleared and thoroughly raked in September, and is in its best condition for a decade. However the huge double treefall just 0.35 mile from the campground remains. Sadly the State Park section (Miles 185.5-189) remains a mess, with considerable debris remaining from the winter and recent storms, including nine significant treefall hazards.
Deer Springs Trail has about 17 significant treefall hazards below the Fuller Ridge Trail junction remaining from last winter. Water is flowing very well in Little Round Valley and in all of the springs and creeks along the Deer Springs Trail route. Almost all of the 12 downed trees above Fuller Ridge on Deer Springs Trail date back 5-10 years and have been reported to the State Park multiple times.
Trails around the Skunk Cabbage and Tahquitz area meadows have some significant treefall hazards remaining from last winter (resurveyed early November 2023). There are six on the PCT section north from near Mile 177 (the crossing of Tahquitz Creek) to Saddle Junction (roughly Mile 179.3), three on each side of Chinquapin Flat. There are four significant treefalls, including a couple that are not easy to pass, on the Little Tahquitz Meadow trail between the Caramba Trail and the PCT junction.
Fourteen treefall hazards from this past winter on South Ridge Trail (above the trailhead at the top of South Ridge Road) were removed by the Trail Report in May, and trail trimming has been undertaken regularly. No significant new treefall hazards resulted from Tropical Storm Hilary on this trail. South Ridge Road remains closed to vehicle traffic and is not expected to reopen until 2024 despite being fully graded in October. The middle section of South Ridge Trail – between May Valley Road and the top of South Ridge Road – is now clear following removal of 20 trees in two sessions this season (15th July and 30th October).
Marion Mountain Trail has five notable treefall hazards in the State Park (upper) half. One new large stump came down in Hilary low down on the Forest Service section, but it is easy to pass.
Of seven new treefall hazards on Spitler Peak Trail caused by Tropical Storm Hilary, the Trail Report removed five in early October (the couple that remain are at about head height and can be easily passed under). This brings to 90 the number of trees removed from this trail since July 2021 by the Trail Report. Several minor washouts from this past winter in the upper switchbacks have significantly impacted the tread in places; these are not problematic for hikers, but the trail is impassable to stock.
Elsewhere on the PCT treefall hazards remain a problem in many places, most notably between Apache Peak and Red Tahquitz, where I counted 106 between Miles 169-175 in June 2023. This section has not yet been resurveyed since T. S. Hilary. Large downed trees make for especially slow-going around Miles 172-175 (a section severely burned in the July 2013 Mountain Fire).
The Caramba Trail from near Reeds Meadow through Laws Camp and on to Caramba, and the Cedar Trail from Willow Creek Trail to Laws, are euphemistically described by the Forest Service as “not maintained”. In reality both trails have been abandoned and functionally no longer exist. They are so heavily overgrown with dense whitethorn, which obscures dozens of downed trees, that I strongly advise hikers do not attempt to follow them (regardless of how much you may trust a certain app). An informal use trail to Laws is much more direct, well maintained, and avoids the challenging bushwhacking of the unmaintained trails (local Idyllwild hikers dubbed it the “King Trail” when I established the route in 2019). It leaves Willow Creek Trail exactly 1.0 mile from Saddle Junction, 0.46 mile from the Skunk Cabbage turning (trailhead at lat/long N 33.7796, W 116.6590). The route descends largely following established deer trails for 1.2 miles, meeting Willow Creek about 0.2 mile upstream from the site of the historic Laws Camp (the remains of which were destroyed by the 2013 Mountain Fire and subsequent flood and treefall damage). The 11 trees down on the King Trail after this winter were removed in June-July 2023. The tread of the trail received some minor damage from Tropical Storm Hilary. From Laws east to Caramba the route of the original Caramba Trail has been well-cairned by myself and others and can largely be followed with very careful route-finding. My August 2023 survey counted about 110 trees down on this 2.1 miles of trail. It is especially obscure for the first 0.3 mile east of the Willow Creek crossing, becoming more obvious (but still subtle) as it descends towards Caramba. Very cautious navigation is advised throughout the area.
Seven Pines Trail is largely clear of treefall hazards. Five new trees came down across the trail in Tropical Storm Hilary, all in the central mile, but they are readily passable for hikers. Be advised that the trail in general becomes more obscure in the mile closest to its junction with the PCT. The Trail Report has “adopted” Seven Pines Trail as a priority for maintenance work as the trail has had a disproportionate number of lost hiker rescues in the past decade. Since November 2021, some 70 downed trees have been removed and the trail is thoroughly trimmed and cleared several times per year. Nevertheless Seven Pines remains a genuine wilderness trail unlike the relatively wide, bare, and obvious routes of, for example, Devil’s Slide or Marion Mountain trails. Cautious navigation remains essential for those without considerable experience of hiking this trail.
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